Menino Blinks, Leaving a Uncertain Moment for the Occupy Movement

Last night, Occupy Boston proved it still has widespread enthusiastic support. The mayor and police were apparently not prepared to deal with that eventuality, and now have egg on their faces. Naturally protestors were ebullient. The next move for the movement, though, will be a tough and hazardous one.

The mayor is trapped between a rock and a hard place. Over the last ten weeks, he has behaved like a man who wishes this movement would just go away so he doesn't need to deal with the political ramifications of supporting or opposing it. Hence, e.g, his earlier vague statements that "a time will come" when they have to leave, but they are fine as they are for right now. Now however he has been openly defied. Over the long term leaving the protestors in place would threaten to erode the mayor's credibility past the point of endurance. It is possible he will simply concede the point quietly and hope winter does it's work, but I doubt it. More likely, Occupy will have a choice to make. Here are the two main choices as I see them.

Option I. Make a physical retreat from literal occupation, but continue the movement. Use the groundswell of support received last night to claim a moral victory and create momentum for a different model of protest. Hopefully, this would shift media and public attention back to the issues the protestors care about and away from endless debate about tactics. The risk, of course, is that the mainstream would simply dismiss Occupy as having admitted defeat.

Option II. Go out with a confrontation. This move would be a high-risk, high reward gamble. If a raid came soon, the public support generated by last night's deadline showdown might lead to sympathy with protestors who non-violently resisted arrest. The victory would only be meaningful if Occupy could again muster a large number of protestors.  Occupy cannot engage successfully in civil disobedience with a low turnout, since its complaints are against systematic political and economic unfairness, rather than violation of the rights of individuals.

A failure of either tactic would lead to the death of the movement. A success in I might lead to a renaissance and mainstreaming of the movement, which may have the side effect of moderating demands. The results of a successful application of II would lead to further civil unrest, though the extent and form it takes is impossible to predict, and could potentially be impossible to control.

It'll be a heck of a GA tonight.